Disclaimer:
Adult circumcision remains a safe and commonly performed procedure with many proven benefits, including reduced rates of urinary tract infection, penile cancer, and certain sexually transmitted infections. This tool is intended to help surgeons by providing an estimated probability of composite complications based on intraoperative vitals and patient characteristics. It should be used as an adjunct to, not a replacement for, clinical judgment and shared decision-making with the patient or guardian.
We compared three supervised models: logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machines to predict short-term complications after adult male circumcision. Data from 194 patients (≥18 years) at a Milan center (2023–2024), using age, BMI, blood loss, surgical technique (traditional vs. laser), intraop vitals, and comorbidities.
Resampling & Training
No resampling (SMOTE/ROS) was applied
Stratified 10-fold cross-validation
Standard preprocessing pipelines
Performance Metrics (SVM Best)
Metric
Value
AUC ROC
0.907
Precision / PPV
0.725
Average Precision
0.832
Sensitivity / Recall
0.862
Specificity
0.860
F1-Score
0.787
Brier Score
0.105
Model Threshold
0.238
Top Predictors (SHAP)
Intraoperative blood loss and surgical technique were the strongest predictors.
Notes & Next Steps
Strengths: rigorous CV, interpretability via SHAP.
Limitations: single-center data, no external validation.
Future: test on diverse populations and settings.
